ization of South Asia
which country is most likely to trigger WW3?
Abstract South Asia is one of the most unpredictable nuclear flash points in the world. There are many numerous challenges resulting in intractable dilemmas not only at inter-intra state levels of conflict but also between human and military security. In 1974 India was able to explode her bomb. Bhutto states that “We will eat grass but make bomb”. Pakistan began to develop her nuclear capabilities and exploded two nuclear bombs test on 29 May 1998 Pakistan conducting this acted because India was threatening Pakistan. The subcontinent has become an even more dangerous place with the introduction of nuclear weapons and development of missile system. India-Pakistan are not any less that all threatened a WW3. Especially with India large arsenal of nuclear weapons whose safety is a big question mark escalation is a possibility. A nuclear confrontation would be strong effect on South Asia enormously disruptive to the world economy and highly dangerous to the whole planet.
South Asia is a culturally rich and geographically diverse region which includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. One quarter of the world’s children live in these eight countries. (unicef org south asia, 2018)
(Travel Maps and Major Tourist Attractions Maps, 2018)
In the article of (Verma, 2017) Nuclear or radiological materials remain one of the gravest threats to humanity and to global stability. An upcoming administration should take a fresh view at a region of the world that hosts two states with nuclear weapons and a serious terrorism problem in South Asia. (Hannah E.Haegeland, 2017)
Both Reema Verma and Hannah E.Haegeland analysis on South Asia tends that focus on nuclear risks. They analyzed that this area of high risk of location and violence by non state actors that is the target threat environment in South Asia, two states with nuclear weapons programs India and Pakistan (Verma, 2017). There is a probability but high potential cost of an incident of nuclear or radiological threat and terror merits greater attention from citizens and policy makers alike and the requisite means, motive and opportunities for an incident of war via weapons of mass destruction or disruption converge in South Asia. (Hannah E.Haegeland, 2017)
(The terrifying geography of nuclear and radiological insecurity in South Asia, 2017)
The map of two nuclear states in South Asia, Pakistan and India indicates the yellow marks of nuclear facilities and nuclear capable military bases identified by experts in red, the known open-source history of terrorist attacks, incidents of theft, transportation accidents or personnel reliability program failures involving nuclear or radiological materials and facilities in India and Pakistan in blue all terror attacks in India and Pakistan in 2015 and in green, all terror attacks in India and Pakistan in 2014.
“Nuclearization is a process by which the states acquire maximum levels of nuclear capability”. (Ahmed, 2015) .Nuclear capability means “A state which is able to test a bomb or have able to do explosion”. To test a bomb, state needs Quality, Quantity, Deterrence, Capability and Experiment. (Ahmed, 2015) When states made a bomb and have all the above mentioned things then that are able to test a bomb. The Nuclear Organization of South Asia .Nucleariztion also brings Arm Race with it. Arm race means a process to gain more arms or weapons. A race starts between the states. It’s an action reaction race. If state A’s action is jeopardizing the security of state B, then state B have the capability to counter it. This thing is called Deterrence which a state have a defense mechanism (Stimson, 2017) .
The objective of Nuclearization is to gain more and more power is the basic objective of a state security purpose. WW II caused massive destruction because of nuclear bombs introduced by USA. After WW II world is divide into two blocs capitalist and communist, whole world entered into arm race. USSR breaks the hegemony of US as only nuclear power state in the world in 1950. Rest of the states also become the nuclear state like France, China get this energy. In 1974 India was able to explode her bomb. Bhutto states that “We will eat grass but make bomb” (Shamim, 2018). NPT in 1968 did not sign by China, India and Pakistan because it’s a nuclear disarmament treaty. In 1968 India did not accept the idea of nuclear free zone given by Pakistan. Pakistan began to develop her nuclear capabilities and exploded two nuclear bombs test on 29 May 1998, Pakistan conducting this act because India was threatening Pakistan. The subcontinent has become an even more dangerous place with the introduction of nuclear weapons and development of missile system. In the South Asia only two countries are nuclear state that is India and Pakistan. That was considered a biggest continuous threat not only for South Asia is for whole world. (Narang, 2015)
The history of development of nuclear technology in South Asia goes back in early 1950s when India starts a program. The long history of rivalry due to outstanding territorial disputes, number of wars and serious military crises has added to mutual distrust and suspicion. South Asia remains one of the most dangerous regions in the world with a possibility of a military conflict that could potentially lead to a nuclear exchange in the future. The long history of rivalry due to outstanding territorial disputes, number of wars and serious military crises has added to mutual distrust and suspicion. In 1956 India became a first Asian country to have a research sector. In 1960 India was able to get a 40MW plutonium production reactor called Canada India Reactor. In 1964 China’s nuclear explosion threatened the India. (Shamim, 2018)From 1947 to 1967 Pakistan never thought about acquiring nuclear capability because Pakistan not in position. In 1974 India was able to explode her bomb. Bhutto states that “We will eat grass but make bomb”. NPT in 1968 did not sign by China, India and Pakistan because it is a nuclear disarmament treaty. In 1968 India did not accept the idea of nuclear free zone given by Pakistan. Pakistan began to develop her nuclear capabilities and exploded two nuclear bombs test on 29 May 1998 Pakistan conducting this acts because India was threatening Pakistan. (Shamim, 2018)
India expanded security interests and the desire to be reckoned as a regional and possibly a global power in the distant future, India has embarked upon upgrading its military potential through exponential increase in its defense spending. The Indian military has also embarked
upon developing new war fighting concepts under a nuclear environment forcing Pakistan to consider options to restore the strategic balance and to maintain deterrence stability in South Asia. (Hanlon, 2015) This action-reaction syndrome has brought new challenges to the region that may need understanding to prevent a military conflict between the two regional powers which would have the potential to escalate into a nuclear exchange with serious consequences for the region as well as the world. (Cohen, 2003)
The operationalization and modernization of nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles are guided by primary nuclear motivations that are also reflected in national nuclear postures (Narang, 2015).The nuclear doctrine of a state nevertheless, is not fixed and continues to evolve in line with national security imperatives. Doctrinal transformation during the Cold War period which was based on several other factors is the only available model to understand the emerging strategic debate, which sometimes leads to incorrect conclusions as the South Asia deterrence relationship may have some similarities to but is distinctly different from the Cold War model (Ahmed, 2015) .The major nuclear drivers both India and Pakistan that led to the nuclearization process. The past military crises and the nuclear weapons role during the pre-and the post-nuclearization periods may help in better understanding of deterrence dynamics between the two nuclear neighbors.
The emerging nuclear postures of India and Pakistan, where one side is trying to explore space for a limited war to exploit its relative conventional advantage by introducing the Cold Start Doctrine while the other side wants to deny the space by introducing new concepts in the form of Full Spectrum Deterrence. (Ahmed, 2015)
The two nuclear neighbors share hostile relations since 1945 till now and which may trigger the nuclear war that is continues threat, the leading contender involves Pakistan and India from South Asia .This may cause spillover effect all over the world because both are shared a good relationship with other nuclear states like US and China that bring the possibility of ww3.
Nuclear Powers as well as Dangerous Powers
Let’s be honest here in this modern day and age nuclear weapons are needed to spur a World War III (Wang, 2017)
Anything less has become irrelevant.
Iraq invades Kuwait, a huge supply of oil for the western world (1990)? A coalition force crushes the Iraqi forces in a few months. With modern technology, as long as countries unify and collaborate in a battle effort, most wars can be ended quickly. (Wang, 2017)
Thus, we have reached our first conclusion – nuclear arming is necessary for a WW3 start.
The following countries are known to have nuclear weapons:
• North Korea
(There are some more – Iran maybe, but this is the list for now)
Now let’s look at each country’s stockpile: (total)
• USA (6500+)
• Russia (~7000)
• UK (200+)
• China (200+)
• France (200+)
• India (100+)
• Pakistan (100+)
• North Korea (